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El Niño can strain several regions in the same season. Follow how changes in rain, heat, wind, and coastal water can reach food prices, transport, electricity, insurance, and jobs.
El Niño shifts rainfall, heat, winds, and coastal ocean conditions.
A crop loss in one place can raise prices elsewhere. Add transport, power, or insurance trouble in several regions, and the costs can reinforce one another.
Past El Niño events often brought drier conditions here. That can pressure crops, power, and transport at the same time, but the actual outcome still depends on monsoon timing and local decisions.
SOURCE · NOAA CPC ↗Past El Niño events often brought more rain here, but that does not tell us whether or where a flood will happen. This pathway is a possibility, not a loss estimate.
SOURCE · NOAA PMEL ↗El Niño can raise the chance of dryness and heat, but it is only one driver. A strong Pacific event does not guarantee severe local damage.
SOURCE · Bureau of Meteorology ↗Rainfall can vary sharply within the region. Conditions in the Indian Ocean and day-to-day weather patterns can strengthen or weaken the El Niño signal.
SOURCE · NOAA CPC ↗Estimated global income that may have been lost over the years after the event—not money destroyed on one day. Model estimate by Callahan & Mankin, Science (2023); not direct loss accounting.
CALLAHAN & MANKIN · SCIENCE 2023 ↗Estimated global income that may have been lost over the years after the event—not money destroyed on one day. Model estimate by Callahan & Mankin, Science (2023); not direct loss accounting.
CALLAHAN & MANKIN · SCIENCE 2023 ↗