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El Niño can shift rain, heat, winds, and ocean conditions across several regions in the same season. The diagram traces how those physical changes can reach food, transport, energy, insurance, and growth.
El Niño shifts rainfall, heat, winds, and coastal ocean conditions.
When several regions are disrupted together, losses can compound through trade, prices, insurance, investment, and economic growth.
Past El Niño events often brought drier conditions here. That can pressure crops, power, and transport at the same time, but the actual outcome still depends on monsoon timing and local decisions.
SOURCE · NOAA CPC ↗Past El Niño events often brought more rain here, but that does not tell us whether or where a flood will happen. This pathway is a possibility, not a loss estimate.
SOURCE · NOAA PMEL ↗El Niño can raise the chance of dryness and heat, but it is only one driver. A strong Pacific event does not guarantee severe local damage.
SOURCE · Bureau of Meteorology ↗Rainfall can vary sharply within the region. Conditions in the Indian Ocean and day-to-day weather patterns can strengthen or weaken the El Niño signal.
SOURCE · NOAA CPC ↗Estimated global income loss over subsequent years. Model estimate by Callahan & Mankin, Science (2023); not direct loss accounting.
CALLAHAN & MANKIN · SCIENCE 2023 ↗Estimated global income loss over subsequent years. Model estimate by Callahan & Mankin, Science (2023); not direct loss accounting.
CALLAHAN & MANKIN · SCIENCE 2023 ↗